Wednesday, August 29, 2007

War Drums

Business, or bluff?

That is the question. Feckless Leader seemingly declared war on Iran in a speech the other day and it ruffled a lot of folks feathers. Collectively, the big media gave it coverage, but with a yawn in the background. Then there was the 'arrest' of some Iranian diplomats yesterday in Baghdad, but then they were freed.

Certainly, the modus operandi that FL and the war party are following is almost the same as that prior to the Iraq invasion. However the reaction to it is not at all the same. It should also be noted that the administration has hyped the war talk each time the Security Council has been negotiating another round of sanctions against Iran. While the language this time has become more strident and unbalanced (due to more resistance from Russia and China?), the rhetoric has not changed in its substance.

If the US does attack Iran, I would make the following predictions:
1. It would be a 'full spectrum' attack against nuclear, military and civilian infrastructure.
2. It would happen this fall, or in very early winter.
3. It will enjoy bipartisan support, at least at the beginning.
4. News media will have a public orgasm, and declare Bush bold.
5. Preliminary to the attack, Maliki will be replaced.

If not, it would indicate that some sanity has returned to Washington, even if Feckless Leader remains outside the loop. Not having any inside info, I put the odds at about 50-50. It really comes down to the question, "Who is in charge?".


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