Saturday, March 28, 2009

AfPak

Obama's escalation of our excellent adventure in Afghanistan, and its ostensible motivations, prove that the ghost of 9/11 is not dead, that it never will be dead, and can and will be used to justify whatever half-assed policy needs justification.

The difference is that Obama and his crew seem to believe that the US can 'win' against Al-Qaida, while for Bush/Cheney it was just an excuse, they never gave a shit about Al-Qaida, regarding them as useful boogeymen to sway the rubes.

But Obama's emphasis on Al-Qaida means that a self-fulfilling mechanism is being set up, combating terrorism with troops and drones will just produce more terrorists. The obvious loser in this equation is Pakistan. Already singled out for their support of 'some' Taliban, more US pressure will only weaken the tottery unity that has emerged since the deal in Swat and the end of the 'long march'.

And if Pakistan breaks up, what then? The 17,000 troops, plus the 4,000 'trainers' is a drop in the bucket for Afghanistan, throw Pakistan into the mix and troop levels will have to rise quickly. Despite the rhetoric of making this a regional issue, Russia, China and Iran are going to continue to sit on their hands. To bad that 9/11 and the Al-Qaida boogeymen don't work with them.

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