Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Pre-election prediction review

On September 27 I issued my fearless prediction of upcoming events before and including the midterms on November 7. They were, with an update following each in red:
  1. Democrats do better, but fail to win back either the House or the Senate. It looks nip and tuck, but Dems have a full week to continue to blow it.
  2. The national media continues to operate as an arm of the RNC. Is there a better example than the Kerry kertuffle?
  3. Schwartznegger is re-elected in California. Yuk. No brainer, musclebound movie goons with funny accents need do nothing to be a great governator.
  4. There will not be an attack on Iran before the election. Looks like another in the win column, let's hope so, anyway.
  5. Gasoline prices will continue to fall modestly. OK, so it wasn't so hard to predict.
  6. Bush's approval rating rises modestly. (see 2 and 5 above) I'd have to look at the polls, but I might lose this one. Still close, I believe.
  7. Rumsfeld will not resign. I know our Preznit!
  8. Iraq and Afghanistan will continue to deteriorate, but the media won't notice. Deteriorate check, as for the media, let's say they notice as little as possible.
  9. Torture bill passes, Democrats are mostly on board. Check.
  10. No major hurricanes hit the US. Check.
So, six already in the win column (2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10), barring divine intervention; 1 is a toss-up, 4 probable, 6 possible, while 8 could count as a victory since the Kerry thing dominates the headlines, though I can entertain arguments for the opposing view. If this trend holds up, it puts me up there with the big-league prognosticators, so move over Nostradamus.


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