Must read alert!

Daniel Ellsberg in Harpers, The Next War

A hidden crisis is under way. Many government insiders are aware of serious plans for war with Iran, but Congress and the public remain largely in the dark. The current situation is very like that of 1964, the year preceding our overt, open-ended escalation of the Vietnam War, and 2002, the year leading up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

In both cases, if one or more conscientious insiders had closed the information gap with unauthorized disclosures to the public, a disastrous war might have been averted entirely.

Prediction #4 (no war on Iran before the election) is still how I would call it now, but I should note that the USS Eisenhower task force will now have reached the operations area for an attack on Iran. Despite the possibility of a completely unprovoked and unannounced attack, my guess would be that a manufactured or magnified incident (see Israel/Hezbollah) would be the causus belli of any sudden attack, especially before the elections.