Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Afghanistan agony

Along with the news that the new date for beginning a withdrawal from Afghanistan (still contingent on circumstances on the ground) is 2014, comes the news of a new strategy, destroying thousands of houses and farm buildings around Kandahar with the excuse that they are (or might be) booby-trapped.

Needless to say, population displacement is the goal, since clear, hold, build has obviously failed already. That, like in Iraq, is the fallback strategy, and signals the end of COIN. Petraeus was never a COIN guy anyway, though he and his sycophants will undoubtedly continue to pay lip-service to it.

Where the new refugees will go is not yet discussed. Pakistan, the obvious location for Pashtun refugees, would only be further destabilized. Winter is approaching, and another US made humanitarian crisis will have devastating consequences. The US and NATO are now entering a new phase, massive war crimes are back on the table, and victory will be a destroyed and depopulated country.

Will 2014 give enough time? Don't bet on it, real withdrawal, like in Iraq, is not on the table. Only exterior events, bigger wars and domestic collapse can derail this train to hell.


Post a Comment

<< Home